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Created attachment 1199504 [details]
Log from the failure

"nmcli c up gsm" fails in ~1/30 cases when run in a loop.

Created attachment 1199505 [details]
Successful connection

So the real cause of the failure is reported by %IER and it's 34; looking that up in the 3GPP TS 24.008 Annex G.4 shows:

Cause value = 34 Service option temporarily out of order 
This cause is sent when the MSC cannot service the request because of temporary outage of one or more functions required for supporting the service.

This would indicate a problem in the Yota NITB, if the modem is to be believed.

By "yota nitb" I actually mean the "YateBTS network-in-a-box"

There is no plan to address this.. Will re-open if a requirement for this modem comes up.

-Sushil